Markets were bracing themselves for a horrible figure, as expectations of -20.050 million have shown, and the reaction has not been earth-shattering so far. Institutional investors are also aware that ADP's statistics do not often correlate with the official Non-Farm Payrolls figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What can we expect for the NFP?
The same seasoned investors may brace for bad news and not rush to sell. However, retail traders could be shocked by headlines focusing on the total job losses – for both March and April. That may trigger a broader sell-off in stocks.
Moreover, the weight of retail traders has risen with the coronavirus crisis. The combination of high volatility and more spare time has pushed people to open trading accounts, as RobinHood usage recently showed. If these newcomers panic, they could have a significant impact, triggering stop-loss orders.
A sell-off in shares and a general risk-off environment may send everybody to the safe-haven dollar, with the yen also potentially coming under attack.
I am looking at a drop of 31000K.
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