We never ruled out the possibility of disinflation or even deflation – the disinflationary pressure was obvious for all economists.
What I is that during the current crisis, there are some forces that were absent during the Great Recession. This is perhaps why the disinflationary pressure has been so far weaker than during the global financial crisis and this is why it could consequently cause relatively higher inflation over the medium and long run.
I mean here the quickly rising the supply of credit and of broad money supply. Additionally, the reopening of economies should strengthen the inflationary pressure compared to the lockdown. It should translate into higher prices eventually, which should support the demand for gold as an inflation hedge. However, investors should remember that the increase in the broad money supply affects the prices with significant lag of several months, and it might be also be the case that the inflationary pressure will affect the asset prices more or earlier than the CPI Index.
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