Wells Fargo believes that even if the Federal Reserve maintains its policy at the FOMC meeting next week, the US dollar may still weaken further, which is most beneficial to the Euro and other currencies of the “dollar group”.
Strategists Mike Schumacher, Zachary Griffiths and Erik Nelson wrote in Thursday’s report, the upward momentum of foreign currencies is very strong, and the downturn of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week may give the green light to the continued weakness of the dollar; any new major policy changes in the form of yield curve control or other forward guidance are more likely to be announced at the September or November meeting.
The standstill meeting will bring a slight increase in yields, which may limit the rise of the US dollar against the yen and emerging markets. The euro “should be more resilient”, and “the net speculative positions of the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar look particularly low.” Any changes to the forward-looking guidance language may be restricted by the "uncertainty of the economic impact of the resurgence of the epidemic".
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