- "NII (net interest income) to the sky," writes Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo in his 2022 outlook for large-cap banks. Credit costs are expected to stay at half of historical level, and capital markets should remain above 2019 levels.
- "Traditional banking revenue should show the fastest growth in a generation, in our view, and bring with it higher incremental profit margins," he wrote. Mayo's top pick for large-cap banks remains Bank of America (BAC +4.4%).
- For financials overall, the positives include interest rates, still good credit, efficiencies from tech, still attractive valuations, and COVID recovery. The risks include the stock market as not much appreciation is expected, regulation, disintermediation, Omicron, and an economy that can run either too hot or too cold.
- Mid-cap banks should see a good year, with momentum increasing into H2 on accelerating loan growth, broader economic improvement, and the prospect for higher interest rates. Signature Bank (SBNY +2.0%) analyst Jared Shaw's favorite, followed by Popular (BPOP +3.4%), and SVB Financial (SIVB +2.3%).
- Wells Fargo analyst Don Fandetti expects consumer finance stocks to regain momentum after a winter pause as he doesn't expect any major shutdowns from the pandemic. Card loan growth and consumer spending are expected to continue.
- "The U.S. consumer remains healthy and there is still a lot of pent-up demand," Fandetti writes. Top pick is American Express (AXP +2.8%) on U.S. travel and entertainment recovery.
- Insurance analyst Elyse Greenspan sees 2022 shaping up as a good year for non-life insurance companies, while the life sector is still facing headwinds of low interest rates and COVID-19 losses. Pricing stays good in commercial lines and is improving in reinsurance, Greenspan said. Meanwhile, personal lines pricing should pick up. Top pick is Chubb (CB +1.6%), followed by Arch Capital Group (ACGL +1.2%), W.R. Berkley (WRB +1.5%), and The Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG +1.2%).
- Analyst Fin O'Shea sees continued strength in fundraising and deployment for asset managers and alternatives. "Newer strategies are leading to more diverse and durable management fee streams while FRE (fee-related earnings) multiples still appear inexpensive versus the market," O'Shea writes. Top ideas include Apollo Global Management (APO +1.9%), Ares Management (ARES -1.2%), and KKR (KKR +0.2%).
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