For the day ahead on Wednesday, the focus will be on US core and headline Consumer Price Index inflation which is expected to increase by 0.5% MoM in March. Some may argue that there have been signs of inflation intensifying again and labour market conditions remain too tight for the Fed. However, analysts at TD Securities said ´´core prices likely cooled off modestly in March, with the index still rising a strong 0.4% MoM,´´ as they look for recent relief from goods deflation to turn into inflation this month. ´´Shelter prices likely remained the key wildcard, while slowing gas prices and softer food-price gains will likely dent non-core inflation. Our m/m forecasts imply 5.1%/5.6% YoY for total/core prices,´´ the analysts explained.
Meanwhile, solid jobs data in the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday for March added to expectations that the Federal Reserve will complete one more rate hike. The data on Friday showed employers added 236,000 jobs while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The central bank is expected to hike rates by an additional 25 basis points at its May 2-3 meeting, before pausing in June. Markets are also pricing for the Fed to pivot by year-end on an expected recession.
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