- Bearish View
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2650.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
- Bullish View
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2650.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2300.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis:
The GBP/USD exchange rate continued its downtrend this week. It has dropped below the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since October last year. Moving below that level is a sign that bears have prevailed.
US Consumer Confidence and FOMC Minutes
The GBP/USD pair has been in a strong downward trend as traders embraced a risk-off sentiment after Donald Trump’s election.
It has also dropped after signs emerged that the Federal Reserve will be relatively hawkish in the next meeting. Recent economic data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, remained at 3.3%.
Economists believe that some of Trump’s like tariffs and mass deportations will be highly inflationary. For example, deporting millions of farm and construction workers may lead to higher food and house prices.
The next key catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate will be the US consumer confidence report. Economists expect the data to show that consumer confidence rose from 108.7 in October to 112 in November. A higher consumer confidence figure is a positive sign for the economy because consumer confidence is the biggest part of the GDP.
The US will also release the latest house price index data, while the Federal Reserve will release minutes of the last meeting. These minutes will provide color on what went on in the last meeting and what to expect in the coming ones.
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