In the minutes of the August 2 meeting, RBA expects to “take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions over the months ahead”. However, it is “not on a pre-set path.” The path is a “narrow one” and “subject to considerable uncertainty”. The size of timing of future rate hikes will be guided by incoming data and the assessment of the outlook for inflation and labor market, including the risks.
RBA said that inflation is expected to “peak later in 2022”, then decline to top of 2-3% target range by the end of 2024. The expected moderation reflected “the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, the stabilization of commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates in Australia and overseas”. Medium-term inflation expectation remained “well anchored”.
The Australian economy was “growing strongly” with resilient consumer spending and positive investment outlook. National income was boosted by rise in terms of trade to record high”. Outlook is expected to “remain strong” for the rest of 2022, then slow in 2023 and 2024. Employment was “growing strongly” and further declines in unemployment rate were expected over the months ahead.
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