The EURUSD pair is rebounding on the current 4H candle, following the rejection after the Fed raised the Interest Rate again by 0.75% for the 3rd straight meeting. So far this rebound seems to be technical as the 4H RSI hit the oversold level (green circles) that it has another 4 times in the past 3 months. As you see on this 4H chart, the price typically rebounds to either the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, following bounces on such oversold RSI levels.
The 0.5 Fib is currently at 1.000, while the 0.618 at 1.00478. This could be just a short-term reaction as the trend remains bearish long-term, especially within this structured Channel Down pattern that started on the February 10 High. As a result, a break below the 0.9800 Support can complete a similar -6.25% decline near 0.95600. Bear in mind that only a break above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) can change the long-term trend to bullish .
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