The USD/MXN experienced a multi-month corrective decline, bringing the price down to the 18.40. The pair has been consistently heading lower after reaching a March high of 19.23, which intersects with the descending trendline starting from July’s high at around 21.00 on a daily timeframe.
Keeping downside bias intact, the pair is likely to be moving towards retesting the multi-year low at 17.93. The Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled a pause in their rate hiking path, combined with ongoing US Dollar liquidity injections and easing banking adversity, which could push the pair to break below the critical 17.93 mark.
Any upside momentum will likely be limited around the 21-Day Moving Average (DMA), which currently coincides with Monday's high at 18.44. A break above this level would lead the USD/MXN to face the 50 DMA, which aligns with multi-tested support turned into resistance at 18.57.
Both DMA levels hammer the pair, and breaking above them would require significant bullish US dollar momentum to retest the March high at the 19.23 level.
The Relative Strength Index signals lower lows, suggesting further downside potential for the pair.
Market participants focus on the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data release on Friday and the Banxico interest rate decision on Thursday.
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