The US Dollar Index is now around 3% below its stressed peak of mid-March. Economists at ING expect DXY to hover around 102.00 ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Will Jolts job opening data finally drop sharply?

“Actions by the Fed to address Dollar money market stress have allowed investors to (correctly) draw the conclusion that tighter credit conditions make a US hard landing and a sharp Fed easing cycle more likely – a cleanly bearish story for the Dollar. Helping the Fed in this task would clearly be some welcome US data. This would ideally show both easing price pressures and signs of easing constraints in the US labour market.” 

“Today sees the release of US Jolts Job Opening data for February. A sharp decline here would probably be read as a mildly bearish Dollar factor – adding support to the 2H23 Fed easing cycle.”

“DXY can probably stay offered near 102.00 ahead of Friday's NFP and further readings (on Thursday evening) on US bank takeup of Fed funding facilities.”