The main Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the United States will be released by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) in its Report on Business, where the latest manufacturing business survey result is displayed, at 14:00 GMT this Monday.

What to expect from the ISM manufacturing PMI report?

The most important manufacturing PMI in the United States is expected to have risen slightly to 47.0 in April from the 46.3 figure booked in March.

Among the sub-components of the report, the focus will be on Prices Paid as it reflects business sentiment around future inflation. The Manufacturing Prices Paid sub-index is likely to return to expansion, with a 50.4 expected for April. In March, the gauge stood at 49.2.

The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index is also seen a tad higher at 47.9 in the fourth month of the year while the New Orders Index for April is foreseen at 45.5 vs. March’s 44.3.

In March, the ISM survey showed that all subcomponents of its manufacturing PMI were below the 50 threshold for the first time in 14 years. The headline index tumbled to its lowest level in three years, as new orders plunged. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) relentless tightening to fight inflation raised borrowing costs and cooled demand for goods.

The data will provide a fresh update on the health of the US manufacturing sector amid tighter financial conditions and growing recession risks, especially after Thursday’s US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q1.

Apart from the US economic data, investors will track the broader market sentiment in the lead-up to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy announcements.

Analysts at TD Securities offer a brief preview of the key macro data and explain: 

“Surveys already released point to a small rebound for both the ISM manufacturing and services indexes in April following their twin declines in March to 46.3 and 51.2, respectively. We look for the ISM Manufacturing index to advance modestly to a less dire level at 47.5. The services index likely rose as well but to 52.2, indicating a modest improvement in the pace of expansion for the sector."