Despite the hawkish surprise contained in the Fed message – primarily in the dot plot – the Dollar failed to rebound. Economists at ING discuss the USD outlook.

Caution before jumping on a bearish Dollar trend just yet

The post-FOMC pricing is telling us that markets accord higher credibility to data than the Fed’s communication, so more evidence of US disinflation/economic slowdown can prompt more Dollar weakness moving ahead. However, with markets underpricing rate hikes compared to the dot plot, we’d be cautious before jumping on a bearish Dollar trend just yet, given the high risk of market pricing converging to the Fed’s projections and pushing short-term swap rates higher again. 

So, Dollar bulls can probably cling on to the hawkish dot plot for now, or at least until (and if) data indicates more unequivocally that there is no longer a necessity to raise rates.