The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left policy unchanged. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes JPY outlook.

No BoJ surprise, Yen bulls still suffering

Governor Ueda made veiled threats about intervention but otherwise, offered no sign that there was any rush to tighten monetary policy. The impression the Governor leaves, is that only further Yen weakness or distortions in the curve would cause any rush to act on YCC. The contrast with the ECB, which sent out clearer warnings that there is another hike following fast on the heels of yesterday’s, is clear and reflected in EUR/JPY.

I think USD/JPY should be below 135 now and heading to 130 later this year, but it may need to go higher first. As for EUR/JPY, shorting the pair has the same drawbacks but it does look out of line with rates.