Gold was little changed after the Fed rate decision. Economists at TD Securities analyze XAU/USD outlook.

Future rate decisions will very much be driven by inflation and economic data

The US central bank signaled a hawkish, hawkish pause, as the FOMC members predicted two more hikes. But since the spread of members’ dots is so wide, ranging from 3.625%-5.875% for next year, the median estimate is not all that relevant as far as we are concerned and future rate decisions will very much be driven by inflation and economic data. 

We suspect that data and inflation will weaken in the not too distant future, with the Fed likely lowering rates before hitting its inflation target. As such, we expect Gold to do quite well in the months ahead.