Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 0.6590 Take Profit 0.6469 Stop Loss 0.6670 Key Levels 0.6469, 0.6591, 0.6715, 0.6835, 0.6897
Alternative scenario Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 0.6715 Take Profit 0.6835, 0.6897 Stop Loss 0.6650 Key Levels 0.6469, 0.6591, 0.6715, 0.6835, 0.6897
Current trend
The AUD/USD pair continues to decline for the second week in a row and is currently trading around 0.6620.
The Australian currency is still under pressure amid the publication of May inflation data in Australia. Recall that the consumer price index decreased from 6.8% to 5.6% year-on-year, much more seriously than experts expected (6.1%). The slowdown will allow officials of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to suspend the "hawkish" cycle of monetary policy and abandon further interest rate increases. In addition, today's publication of Chinese data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector contributes to the current decline in the quotations of the AUD/USD pair: in June, the indicator remained at 49.0 points, while a decrease in production activity may lead to a decrease in purchases by Chinese companies of raw materials and energy from Australia and put additional pressure on the economy.
Unlike the RBA, the US Fed is likely to resume raising interest rates in the near future. Speaking at the Forum of the European Central Bank, the head of the department Jerome Powell said that further tightening of monetary policy may be appropriate, and officials are considering such a possibility. Thus, the US currency will continue to receive support from monetary factors. In addition, its strengthening is currently being promoted by yesterday's publication of data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the USA: in Q1 2023, the economy grew by 2.0%, significantly exceeding the projected 1.4%. These data reduce the risks of a recession and strengthen the investment attractiveness of the US dollar.
Support and resistance
Technically, the price is close to the level of 0.6591 (Murray level [4/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of continuing the decline to the level of 0.6469 (Murray level [2/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the 0.6715 mark (Murray level [6/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), consolidation above it may lead to an increase in quotes to the 0.6835 (the Murray level [8/8]) and 0.6897 (the Murray level [ 1/8]).
Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands reverse horizontally after growth, the MACD histogram is preparing to move into the negative zone, the Stochastic is horizontal in the oversold zone.
Resistance levels: 0.6715, 0.6835, 0.6897.
Support levels: 0.6591, 0.6469.
Trading tips
Short positions should be opened below 0.6591 with a target at 0.6469 and stop-loss in the area of 0.6670. Implementation period: 5-7 days.
Long positions can be opened above 0.6715 with targets at 0.6835, 0.6897 and stop-loss at around 0.6650.
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.6590 |
| Take Profit | 0.6469 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6670 |
| Key Levels | 0.6469, 0.6591, 0.6715, 0.6835, 0.6897 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.6715 |
| Take Profit | 0.6835, 0.6897 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6650 |
| Key Levels | 0.6469, 0.6591, 0.6715, 0.6835, 0.6897 |
Current trend
The AUD/USD pair continues to decline for the second week in a row and is currently trading around 0.6620.
The Australian currency is still under pressure amid the publication of May inflation data in Australia. Recall that the consumer price index decreased from 6.8% to 5.6% year-on-year, much more seriously than experts expected (6.1%). The slowdown will allow officials of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to suspend the "hawkish" cycle of monetary policy and abandon further interest rate increases. In addition, today's publication of Chinese data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector contributes to the current decline in the quotations of the AUD/USD pair: in June, the indicator remained at 49.0 points, while a decrease in production activity may lead to a decrease in purchases by Chinese companies of raw materials and energy from Australia and put additional pressure on the economy.
Unlike the RBA, the US Fed is likely to resume raising interest rates in the near future. Speaking at the Forum of the European Central Bank, the head of the department Jerome Powell said that further tightening of monetary policy may be appropriate, and officials are considering such a possibility. Thus, the US currency will continue to receive support from monetary factors. In addition, its strengthening is currently being promoted by yesterday's publication of data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the USA: in Q1 2023, the economy grew by 2.0%, significantly exceeding the projected 1.4%. These data reduce the risks of a recession and strengthen the investment attractiveness of the US dollar.
Support and resistance
Technically, the price is close to the level of 0.6591 (Murray level [4/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of continuing the decline to the level of 0.6469 (Murray level [2/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the 0.6715 mark (Murray level [6/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), consolidation above it may lead to an increase in quotes to the 0.6835 (the Murray level [8/8]) and 0.6897 (the Murray level [ 1/8]).
Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands reverse horizontally after growth, the MACD histogram is preparing to move into the negative zone, the Stochastic is horizontal in the oversold zone.
Resistance levels: 0.6715, 0.6835, 0.6897.
Support levels: 0.6591, 0.6469.
Trading tips
Short positions should be opened below 0.6591 with a target at 0.6469 and stop-loss in the area of 0.6670. Implementation period: 5-7 days.
Long positions can be opened above 0.6715 with targets at 0.6835, 0.6897 and stop-loss at around 0.6650.
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