Economists at ANZ Bank see no hard evidence yet that central banks have reached an appropriate level of restrictiveness for rates.
Fed, ECB and BoE to maintain hawkish guidance
For the foreseeable future, therefore, we expect that the central banks will remain hawkish.
Changes in both the magnitude and frequency of rate rises reflect the reality that central banks have moved quickly to get policy to restrictive levels. It is natural for monetary strategy to evolve and that is not a reflection of a less hawkish monetary stance. Economies take time to respond to monetary tightening and it is appropriate that central banks embrace that in their frameworks.
We do not see the conditions yet in place for a central bank pivot. We continue to expect the Fed, ECB and BoE to tighten further. The evolution of the data will determine if additional rate hikes are required in the northern autumn.
Whilst embracing patience, we currently see the risks to our rate profile as higher for longer.
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