Misery – defined as the unemployment rate plus inflation – is falling sharply in the US and more slowly in Europe. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes the implications for financial markets.
Can beating inflation be painless?
Risky assets would clearly benefit from a recession-free escape from inflation. The Dollar wouldn’t. Nor would the Dollar benefit from a mild recession that allowed European misery to melt away without too much pain (and the ECB to go on hiking after the Fed was finished).
But the tail risk that the Fed is encouraged to pause then pivot and stop raising rates, only to see tight labour markets drive a fresh upturn in underlying inflation next year, is now a real risk. That outcome, scuppering European recoveries and forcing the Fed to drive the economy in a late 2024 recession, may be a tail risk but it’s a big enough one to underpin FX volatility going forwards.
We think the volatility downtrend is over and bumpier markets are likely.
免責事項：本記事で述べられている見解は著者の見解のみであり、Followmeの公式見解を反映するものではありません。Followmeは、提供された情報の正確性、完全性、信頼性について一切責任を負いません。また、書面で明示的に記載されている場合を除き、本記事の内容に基づいて行われたいかなる行動についても責任を負いません。
