Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, highlights the fundamental problem of the common currency area.
No central bank has ever been able to conduct monetary policy against its people in the long run
It is not the quality of the arguments but national interests that determine the monetary policy positions of our monetary guardians. I wonder whether a common monetary policy can succeed in this way.
Don't get me wrong. Any monetary policy made by a body is a compromise. And perhaps compromises are good. But when it's not about the quality of the arguments, but about national interests, the losing half of Europe must always believe that it would be better off with a national monetary policy. In this way, a common currency will never be accepted.
At the end of the day, the institutional independence of a central bank is of no use if the public does not have fundamental confidence in it. No central bank has ever been able to conduct monetary policy against its people in the long run. That's why I'm skeptical about the EUR in the long run.
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