Current trend

After reaching the support level of 1.2630, the GBP/USD pair is preparing to continue its upward movement with a target at 1.3130.

A block of key macroeconomic statistics was published in the UK today: gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 0.1% to 0.2% on a quarterly basis, and from 0.2% to 0.4% on an annual basis, while industrial production rates adjusted from -0.6% to 1.8% on a monthly basis and from -2.1% to 0.7% year-on-year, signaling a gradual recovery of the national economy. Statistics are likely to provide mid-term support for the exchange rate of the national currency, and the main direction of movement will be set after the announcement of the results of the meeting on monetary policy of the Bank of England, scheduled for September 21.

Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), the focus of the attention of trading participants will be statistics on industrial inflation in the USA, after the publication of which the dollar will either continue an upward correction or resume falling within the current mid-term downward trend. Current forecasts suggest a fairly active growth of the annual value from 0.1% to 0.7%, while the monthly rate may be adjusted from 0.1% to 0.2%, and the base indicator — from 2.4% to 2.3%. If the production price index is kept above the forecast values, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair will have the opportunity to test the 1.2630 level once again.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend is upward. After testing the support level of 1.2630, the instrument is trying to continue growing to the July maximum of 1.3130, and then to the area of 1.3288. If there is a breakdown of the support level of 1.2630 down, then the correction will continue with a target at the trend boundary of 1.2315.

The mid-term trend is upward. Market participants are testing the key support zone 1.2742–1.2702, if held, it will be possible to consider long positions in the asset with a target in the area of 1.3139–1.3099. When the 1.2742–1.2702 zone is broken down, the mid-term trend will change to a downward one, and in this case short positions with a target in the area of 1.2342-1.2302 will become relevant.

Resistance levels: 1.3133, 1.3288, 1.3400.

Support levels: 1.2630, 1.2315, 1.2005.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from 1.2630 with a target at 1.3133 and stop-loss in the area of 1.2435. Implementation time: 9-12 days.

Short positions can be opened below 1.2435 with a target at 1.2005 and stop-loss in the area of 1.2630.