Economists at TD Securities analyze AUD outlook after weaker than expected Australian jobs report.
RBA to stay on hold next month at 4.1%
July jobs report disappointed, with jobs growth at -14.6K contrary to expectations of gains over the month. Full-time jobs took the main hit, down by 24.2K which was partially offset by gains in part-time jobs of 9.6K.
On balance, today's report gives the RBA one more reason to stay on hold next month at 4.1% given the uncertainty over the growth outlook (e.g., weaker China recovery) and broadly balanced inflation risks.
AUD/USD is trading more closely to risk sentiment, commodities weakness and China's narrative and we will watch to see if Aussie closes below the 0.6420 (23.6% Fib) by end-week as there is little support for the AUD till 0.62 (0% Fib) based on the daily over the past year.
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