EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows moderate growth, correcting after a weekly decline, which resulted in a renewal of local lows from July 6. The instrument is testing 1.0880 for a breakout, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Today, July data on producer price indices, as well as a monthly report from the Bundesbank will be presented in Germany. Manufacturing inflation forecasts suggest a 0.2% decline after -0.3% in the previous month. German statistics will complement the general report on consumer inflation in the eurozone, published last Friday, August 18. According to revised data, inflation in the euro area added 5.3% in July (decreasing from the previous value of 5.5%) in annual terms and fell by 0.1% in monthly terms, while the Core Consumer Price Index rose by 5.5% and decreased by 0.1% respectively. A further slowdown in inflation has a positive effect on the single currency, but also acts as a catalyst for the European Central Bank (ECB) to complete the cycle of tightening monetary policy. However, the regulator is currently waiting for new steps aimed at adjusting monetary incentives. In turn, the US Federal Reserve is likely to leave the interest rate unchanged during the September meeting, and also try not to interfere in the situation until the end of the year. This week, the US will host its annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where new arguments can be voiced both in favor of further tightening of monetary policy, and for keeping it unchanged. On Friday, August 25, the speech of the Chair of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is expected, who will summarize the results of the meeting and express the official position of the monetary authorities.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, holding close to 1.2735. Published on Friday, August 18, macroeconomic data from the UK failed to provide significant support to the British currency, confirming the initial forecasts of analysts. Retail Sales in the country in July amounted to -1.2% after rising by 0.6% in the previous month, while analysts had expected a decline of 0.5%. In annual terms, the indicator fell by 3.2% after -1.6% in June, while the market expected -2.1%. Excluding fuel sales, the indicator fell by 3.4% YoY and 1.4% MoM, which also turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts of -2.2% and -0.7%, respectively. Some pressure on the position of the pound is again exerted by statistics from the UK: the Rightmove House Price Index in August fell by 1.9% after -0.2% a month earlier, and in annual terms, the indicator returned to a decrease at -0.1% after growth of 0.5% in July. On Wednesday, investors will pay attention to data on business activity from S&P Global: in the manufacturing sector, the indicator is likely to correct from 45.3 points to 45.0 points, and in the services sector it may fall from 51.5 points to 50.8 points.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair shows a moderate decline, developing a confident downtrend in the short term. The instrument is testing 0.5915 for a breakdown, above the November 2022 all-time lows. The pressure on the instrument is still exerted by negative forecasts regarding one of the main partners of New Zealand, China. Against this background, in July, the volume of Exports from New Zealand decreased from 6.18 billion dollars to 5.45 billion dollars, while Imports strengthened from 6.29 billion dollars to 6.56 billion dollars, which led to an increase in the Trade Deficit from -111.0 million dollars to -1.107 billion dollars. Today, the People's Bank of China decided to cut the interest rate by 10 basis points from 3.55% to 3.45%, while analysts expected a 15 basis point adjustment to 3.40%. Investors are preparing for speeches by US Federal Reserve officials, including the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, as well as the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, which may present new forecasts regarding the prospects for monetary policy in the US.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY shows mixed dynamics, holding near 145.30. At the end of last week, the US currency somewhat weakened and retreated from the record highs of November, and in addition to technical factors, pressure on quotes was exerted by investors' expectations of possible intervention in market operations by Bank of Japan officials. Last year, the regulator resorted to intervention after a confident breakdown of the level of 145.00. Meanwhile, presented on Friday, August 18, macroeconomic statistics from Japan did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. The National Consumer Price Index remained at 3.3% in July, while analysts expected it to slow down to 2.5%, while the CPI excluding Food and Energy corrected from 4.2% to 4.3%. At the end of this week, the publication of August statistics on the dynamics of consumer inflation in the Tokyo region is expected: forecasts suggest a slowdown from 3.2% to 3.0%, and the index excluding fresh food prices may decline from 3.0% to 2.9%. The focus of investors this week will be the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, as well as comments by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Among macroeconomic indicators from the US, one can pay attention to data on business activity indexes from S&P Global, which will appear on Wednesday, and statistics on the volume of Durable Goods Orders, which will be published on Thursday.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows a slight increase, correcting after a confident "bearish" rally for ten consecutive sessions. As a result of the actions of the "bears", the instrument updated the local lows of March 13, and now the market is dominated by technical factors of an upward correction. Meanwhile, the fundamental background is changing slightly and still suggests further moderate strengthening of the US currency. In the US, the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is expected this week, which may give new impetus to previous discussions of the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the US regulator. In addition, statistics on the volume of Durable Goods Orders will be published this week: forecasts suggest a decrease in July by 4.0% after rising by 4.6% in the previous month. On Friday, August 25, the focus of the market will be the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who will sum up the meeting in Jackson Hole. Tomorrow data on the dynamics of the US Existing Home Sales in July will be published. Analysts' forecasts suggest a slowdown in the indicator from 4.16 million to 4.15 million, while last month sales fell by almost 0.3% from 4.3 million in May.