GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD LOOKS TO RECAPTURE $1,900, FALLING WEDGE, JACKSON HOLE EYED

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  • Gold Price portrays bearish consolidation at multi-month low.
  • China stimulus, positioning for Jackson Hole Symposium challenge XAU/USD sellers.
  • Falling wedge confirmation adds strength to bullish bias about the Gold Price.
  • XAU/USD bulls need validation from US PMIs, Durable Goods Orders and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) manages to hold ground near the lowest level in five months, recently picking up bids to around $1,895 amid the early hours of Tuesday’s Asian session.

The XAU/USD pair benefits from the US Dollar’s pullback and China headlines, as well as the market’s positioning for this week’s top-tier central bankers’ speeches at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The metal’s latest bearish consolidation, however, pays little heed to the multi-year high United States Treasury bond yields and the mixed sentiment in the market, which in turn raises doubts about the Gold Price recovery. It should be noted that the latest falling wedge confirmation also favors the intraday buyers of the bullion.

Gold Price traces sluggish US Dollar

Gold Price picks up bids after restraining to refresh the five-month low marked the last week. The reason could be linked to the US Dollar’s sluggish performance ahead of this week’s preliminary readings of the August month Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) and Durable Goods Orders for July, as well as the central bankers’ speeches at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium event, scheduled between August 24 and 26.

Additionally, the previous week’s mostly upbeat United States data prod the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves but some of the top-tier US banks appear struggling to confirm Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish move at the Jackson Hole. That said, Goldman Sachs expects Fed Chair Powell to sound defensive during the annual event of the central bankers but the Bank of America (BofA) expects Fed’s Powell to push back against the rate cut expectations.

During the last week, upbeat activity and wage growth numbers joined hawkish Fed Minutes to enable the US Dollar Index (DXY) to print a fifth weekly run-up. The same also challenged the previous policy pivot concerns and escalate the market’s anxiety before this week’s central bankers’ speeches at the Kansas Fed’s annual event.

Apart from the US Dollar, firmer prints of the United States Treasury bond yields also underpin the hawkish bias about the Fed and challenge the Gold buyers. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to the highest level since 2007, to around 4.354% before ending Monday’s trading day near 4.34%.


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