EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows active growth, developing the "bullish" momentum formed the day before and allowing the instrument to retreat from the local lows of July 6. The euro is trying to consolidate above 1.0910, receiving support from technical factors. At the end of the week, investors are waiting for the annual US Federal Reserve Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, where theses can be heard both in favor of maintaining the interest rate and for its further increase. According to analysts' current forecasts, with a probability of more than 86.0%, the regulator will leave the cost of borrowing unchanged during its September meeting. Meanwhile, the likelihood of another 25 basis point adjustment before the end of the year is about 35.0%. In turn, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to take somewhat more confident steps towards tightening monetary policy due to too much difference between the monetary policy pursued in the EU and the US. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the euro area reduces the "hawkish" sentiment of the ECB board members. In particular, data from Germany published the day before indicated a slowdown in the Producer Price Index in July by 1.1% after -0.3% in the previous month, while analysts had forecast -0.2%. In annual terms, the indicator fell sharply by 6.0% after rising by 0.1% a month earlier, while the market expected -5.1%. On Wednesday, August 23, S&P Global's August Manufacturing and Services PMIs for the eurozone and the US will be released.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is slightly strengthening, continuing the development of a weak uptrend in the short term. The instrument is testing the level of 1.2770 for a breakout; however, there are no significant growth factors for the British currency on the market. Moreover, the pound is still under pressure from the UK data released last week. Retail Sales in July decreased by 1.2% after rising by 0.6% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.5%, and in annual terms, the decline accelerated from -1.6% to -3.2%, which also significantly exceeded market forecasts at -2.1%. In addition, statistics on the House Price Index from the research company Rightmove Group Ltd. was published the day before, having decreased in August by 1.9% after -0.2% a month earlier. In annual terms, the indicator was -0.1% after a moderate increase of 0.5% in July. Traders are in no hurry to open new positions in anticipation of tomorrow's publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the US and the UK. Forecasts suggest a reduction from 45.3 points to 45.0 points in the UK's Manufacturing PMI and from 51.5 points to 50.8 points in the Services PMI, while US data may turn out to be neutral or reflect cautious optimism. During the week, the focus of investors' attention is the US statistics on the volume of Durable Goods Orders, as well as the annual Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where, as expected, the prospects for monetary policy may be announced, since a significant part of the "hawks" still advocate the possibility of further increasing the cost of borrowing.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows an uncertain growth, developing a weak "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of this week. The instrument is testing 0.6420 for a breakout, retreating from last week's all-time lows of November 4, 2022. Growth of quotations is largely due to technical factors. Investors are taking short positions and are also looking forward to the US Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, expecting to receive new signals on the US interest rate outlook. Most analysts (more than 86.0%) are still confident that the cost of borrowing will remain unchanged during the September meeting of the regulator. In turn, the pressure on the position of the Australian dollar is still exerted by statistics from China, indicating a further slowdown in the national economy. At the beginning of the week, it became known that the People's Bank of China lowered its interest rate by 10 basis points to 3.45%. Analysts had expected a 15 basis point decline in the value, but the regulator decided to act more cautiously, which helped to avoid market volatility. In addition to the decline in exports to China, the Australian economy's revenues are declining amid low commodity prices, which make up a significant part of the country's export volume. Tomorrow Australia and the US will publish August data on PMIs in the manufacturing and services sectors. Forecasts for Australian indicators suggest that they remain at the same levels.

USD/JPY

The US dollar returned to the decline in pair with the Japanese yen, consolidating near 146.00. At the same time, pressure on the instrument increases as the date of the annual US Federal Reserve Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole at the end of the week approaches, where new signals may sound both in favor of further growth of the interest rate, and for its maintenance at the same restrictive level until the end of this year. Insignificant support for the yen, in turn, was provided by data published last Friday from Japan. The National Consumer Price Index in July remained at the same level of 3.3%, while analysts had expected a slowdown to 2.5%, while the CPI excluding Food and Energy slightly accelerated from 4.2% to 4.3%. The growth of inflation in the country is positively perceived by investors, who have long been expecting steps towards tightening monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. Nevertheless, the regulator is still taking a wait-and-see attitude and expresses concern about the sharp depreciation of the national currency, for which there are enough tools to correct it, so officials will probably not resort to raising the interest rate for the time being.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near 1900.00. The day before, the instrument managed to demonstrate moderate growth against the backdrop of a downtrend. Gold has been actively falling since mid-July, reacting to the strengthening of the US currency and the increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds, which continues to grow today. The day before, ten-year securities rose from 4.248% to 4.353%. The current attempt to correct the instrument is mainly due to technical factors, as investors seek to take profits on short positions. In addition, traders are waiting for the speech of the Chair of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the annual US Federal Reserve Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole. The "hawks" expect to hear hints of a possible increase in the interest rate in the US before the end of this year, although almost no one doubts that the regulator will keep the value unchanged in September. Among the macroeconomic indicators, one should pay attention to the US statistics on the volume of Durable Goods Orders and on business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors from S&P Global for August.