| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 143.90 |
| Take Profit | 141.50 |
| Stop Loss | 144.50 |
| Key Levels | 141.50, 143.90, 146.20, 148.70 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 146.20 |
| Take Profit | 148.70 |
| Stop Loss | 145.40 |
| Key Levels | 141.50, 143.90, 146.20, 148.70 |
Current trend
The pair USD/JPY is correcting at 145.10 against the stable dynamics of the US dollar.
The yen is trying to change the trend against positive statistics on business activity in August: manufacturing PMI rose from 49.6 points to 49.7 points, surpassing the forecast of 49.5 points, and service PMI – from 53.8 points to 54.3 points, higher than expected 53.9 points. Tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT 2), the Tokyo core consumer price index will be published, which may fall from 3.0% to 2.9% YoY, supporting the national currency.
The US dollar is trading at 103.200 in the USD Index. The August index of business activity in the manufacturing sector decreased from 49.0 points to 47.0 points, and in the service sector – from 52.3 points to 51.0 points, which was leveled by statistics on the real estate market: new home sales in July increased from 684.0K to 714.0K, and the number of issued building permits – from 1.441M to 1.443M.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within an ascending corridor with dynamic boundaries of 148.80–140.20.
Technical indicators keep a buy signal but point to a local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming downward bars in the buying zone.
Resistance levels: 146.20, 148.70.
Support levels: 143.90, 141.50.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after the price drops and consolidates below 143.90 with the target at 141.50. Stop loss – 144.50. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 146.20 with the target at 148.70. Stop loss – 145.40.
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