EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows active decline, developing a corrective impetus formed the day before. The instrument is testing the level of 1.0775 for a breakdown, updating local lows from June 14. "Bearish" dynamics is developing against the background of the publication of macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the EU. In particular, the Services PMI in Germany in August showed a sharp decline from 52.3 points to 47.3 points, and the Manufacturing PMI managed to show a slight increase from 38.8 points to 39.1 points, which was better than expectations at the level of 38.7 points. In turn, the dollar is supported by expectations of a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, at which he may announce the regulator's plans for monetary policy before the end of this year. Macroeconomic statistics published today in Germany does not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Updated data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter indicated that in quarterly terms, the indicator showed zero dynamics, and in annual terms it decreased by 0.6%, while GDP, not seasonally adjusted, decreased by 0.2%. During the day, Germany is expected to publish a block of statistics on the level of business sentiment from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO). Market forecasts suggest that the index of Business Climate will correct from 87.3 points to 86.7 points, and the index of Current Assessment may decline from 91.3 points to 90.0 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is testing 1.2560 for a breakdown. The instrument is preparing to end the week with a rather noticeable decline, as well as an update of local lows from June 13. The focus of the market today remains the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole. The official's rhetoric can both strengthen the current growth of the dollar, and significantly weaken it if investors' hopes for another increase in the cost of borrowing by the end of this year are not justified. At the same time, in September, the regulator is still not expected to change the vector of monetary policy. Meanwhile, traders evaluate macroeconomic statistics on business activity from the US and the UK. The British Manufacturing PMI fell from 45.3 points to 42.5 points, while analysts expected growth to 45.0 points, and the Services PMI went down from 51.5 points to 48.7 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 50.8 points. In turn, PMI in the US Manufacturing sector decreased from 49.0 points to 47.0 points in August against the forecast of 49.3 points, and in the Services sector the index declined from 52.3 points to 51.0 points, while traders counted on 52.5 points.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows a slight decline, developing a corrective impetus formed the day before. The instrument is testing the level of 0.6400 for a breakdown, returning to the levels of the beginning of the week. The appearance of "bearish" dynamics is facilitated by a moderate growth of the US currency across almost the entire spectrum of the market amid expectations of a speech by the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, on Friday as part of the annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole. Investors hope to get new guidance on a possible increase in interest rates before the end of this year. Earlier, representatives of the regulator, including Powell himself, spoke in favor of continuing to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, in September, the markets still expect that with a probability of more than 86.0%, the cost of borrowings will be kept unchanged. Another factor supporting the US dollar was the statistics on the labor market. The number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 18 decreased from 240.0 thousand to 230.0 thousand, while analysts did not expect any changes, and the number of Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended August 11 decreased from 1.711 million to 1.702 million, which turned out to be better than forecasts for a decline to 1.708 million. Meanwhile, Australian investors are evaluating the data published earlier: the Manufacturing PMI in August fell from 49.6 points to 49.4 points with neutral forecasts, and the Services PMI went down from 48.9 points to 46.7 points. In addition, traders are watching the news from China, whose national economy continues to slow down at a record pace.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows a slight increase, developing the upward momentum that appeared the day before and actively testing the level of 146.00. The instrument is supported by expectations of a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the end of the week, as the official may again focus on the possibility of raising interest rates before the end of this year. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintains a wait-and-see attitude, explaining its decisions by low inflationary pressure. After the release of today's data, the likelihood of an increase in the cost of borrowing in the foreseeable future has decreased even more. Tokyo Consumer Price Index fell from 3.2% to 2.9% in August with the forecasts at 3.0%, and the CPI excluding Fresh Food fell from 3.0% to 2.8%, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations at 2.9%. At the same time, investors are concerned about the sharp depreciation of the Japanese currency, assuming that when certain levels are reached, the country's financial authorities will be forced to resort to interventions, as was already the case last year. Previously, the level of 145.00 was considered as a barrier, which should have been followed by the regulator's actions, but now market participants tend to focus on the level of 150.00.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is slightly declining, consolidating near its local highs from August 10. The pressure on the instrument is exerted by technical factors of profit taking on long positions after a moderate growth throughout the trading week. In addition, market participants prefer to wait for today's speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as part of the annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, where markets expect to hear additional signals that the interest rate will be increased by another 25 basis points before the end of this year. In 2024, the regulator may resume its course towards a gradual reduction in the cost of borrowing. Finally, the pressure on gold intensified as the 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 4.200% to 4.234% after a series of declines earlier this week. The dollar's position was also supported by macroeconomic statistics on the labor market the day before: the number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 18 decreased from 240.0 thousand to 230.0 thousand, with forecasts at the level of 240.0 thousand, and the number of Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended August 11 declined from 1.711 million to 1.702 million, ahead of forecasts of 1.708 million.