Gold prices have recovered of late. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

XAU/USD seen at $2,000 by year-end

The upswing is likely to continue if it becomes clearer that interest rates have peaked or that initial rate cuts are increasingly on the cards. The market is thus eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole today. A US labor market report showing an easing of the situation could also generate just such impetus.

That said, we do not expect the situation in August to have already eased noticeably. We do remain optimistic about the end of the year though, and envisage a price of $2,000.