| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 147.80 |
| Take Profit | 150.10 |
| Stop Loss | 147.00 |
| Key Levels | 144.50, 146.50, 147.80, 150.10 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 146.50 |
| Take Profit | 144.50 |
| Stop Loss | 147.50 |
| Key Levels | 144.50, 146.50, 147.80, 150.10 |
Current trend
The Japanese currency was unable to resist the American dollar for long and is losing ground again, as a result of which the USD/JPY pair is approaching a historical high of 150.00.
The second half of the week is filled with economic reports from Japan, which will help investors more accurately assess the state of the economy and the likelihood of the national regulator’s recently announced departure from the negative interest rate policy. Thus, the price index for corporate goods in August increased by 0.3%, which is better than the increase of 0.1% in July, and YoY the increase was 3.2%, less than 3.4% previously. The BSI Large Manufacturers Business Conditions Index corrected to 5.4 points from –0.4 points earlier but the Reuters Tankan Business Confidence Index was downgraded to 4.0 points in September from 12.0 points previously. Tomorrow will be published data on basic orders in mechanical engineering, which is expected to change by –0.9% compared to 2.7% earlier MoM and from –5.8% to –10.7% YoY.
The American dollar is just above 104.500 in the USD Index against decreasing trading volatility. Tonight reports on consumer prices will be published: last month, inflation rose to 3.2% from 3.0% previously, and a correction to 3.6% is predicted in August, which cannot but alarm US Federal Reserve officials, who are already thinking about the beginning of interest rate cuts.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within an ascending corridor with dynamic boundaries of 150.00–141.80.
Technical indicators are strengthening the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in the buy zone.
Resistance levels: 147.80, 150.10.
Support levels: 146.50, 144.50.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 147.80 with the target at 150.10. Stop loss – 147.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 146.50 with the target at 144.50. Stop loss – 147.50.
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