Economists at TD Securities discuss the Nonfarm Payrolls report and its implications for the rates market.

NFP to remain firm in September

We look for NFP to remain firm in September, reflecting a jump above the 200K mark for the first time in four months. We also expect the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.8%, as we are assuming job creation in the household survey will print a softer gain vs. that of the establishment survey. Average hourly earnings likely advanced 0.3% MoM, with the YoY measure staying unchanged at 4.3%.

A strong payroll report could spark a continuation of the recent bear steepening in rates as 10y Treasuries remain in their 4.50-5.32% technical air pocket. However, an unexpected softening in payrolls could pour some cold water on the sell-off, allowing the market to retrace a portion of recent weakness and find some temporary stability.