The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at a crucial level, just above 103.00 and near the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.28. Once that level gives way, it opens the door to a nosedive all the way to 100.00. With the rate differential gap starting to close, the risk is that the gap could flip in favor of other major currencies, which could mean longer-term weakness ahead for the Greenback.
On the upside, there is a long road to recovery for the Greenback, with the first reclaiming ground at the 200-day SMA near 103.73. Once broken through, the 100-day SMA is popping up at 103.85, so a bit of a double cap in that region. Depending on the catalyst that pushes the DXY back further upwards, 104.60 remains the key level on the topside.
It is a bit of an abyss for the DXY where it hangs at the moment, dangling around the 55-day SMA at 103.28. Should it move further away, 103.00 is the first thin line in the sand, though rather look for 101.75, which bears some pivotal relevance. Once through there, the road is open for another leg lower to 100.61, the low of 2023
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