- The US labor market is cooling down despite printing solid gains in February compared to “downward revised” figures from January. After two months of net revisions, the US jobs market totaled a loss of -167,000 jobs compared with initial prints, which sparked a reaction from interest rate futures traders.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations for a May rate cut remain low at 22%, but the odds are at 69% for June.
- February US CPI is expected to rise from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and remain unchanged at 3.1% YoY.
- Core CPI is estimated to drop from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM and from 3.9% to 3.7% YoY.
- Federal Reserve officials last week expressed that they remain data-dependent and want to feel secure that inflation is sustainably trending toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Therefore, Tuesday’s inflation report would be relevant, as a jump in prices could trigger a U-turn in XAU/USD prices.
- XAU/USD is being capped by US Treasury bond yield recovery as the 10-year benchmark note rate gained two basis points at 4.094%.
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