Market reaction to US CPI should be considered as contained after some initial choppy actions. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze market’s outlook after inflation data.
CPI outcome adds marginally to the risk that the median dot may be pushed higher
Overall, the CPI outcome supports the patience that Fed Chair Powell has been emphasising, but it is not enough to move the needle for the direction of monetary policy. That said, the CPI outcome adds marginally to the risk that the median dot may be pushed higher.
We do note that the December dot plot is skewed to the upside, in that two dots moving higher would be enough to move the median dot higher. Should this happen, it would be market moving.
Between now and FOMC, market may keep a holding pattern.
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