EUR/USD REMAINS CAPPED UNDER THE 1.0900 MARK, FED RATE DECISION EYED

• EUR/USD edges lower to 1.0885 amid the recovery of USD. 
• FOMC is expected to hold its key fed funds rate steady at a 5.25%–5.50% range on Wednesday. 
• ECB’s de Cos said that the central bank could start cutting interest rates in June after a decrease in Eurozone inflation. 
• The FOMC monetary policy meeting and press conference on Wednesday will be in the spotlight. 

The EUR/USD pair trades softer below the 1.0900 mark during the early Asian session on Monday. The rebound of the US Dollar (USD) above 103.50 weighs on the major pair. Investors await the US Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate decision on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. At press time, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0885, down 0.03% on the day. 

The University of Michigan showed on Friday that the Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 76.5 in March compared to the previous reading and the estimation of 76.9. The UoM one-year and five-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, US Industrial Production climbed to 0.1% MoM in February from a 0.5% MoM drop in January.

The FOMC is widely expected to hold its key fed funds rate steady at a 22-year high of a 5.25%–5.50% range on Wednesday as Fed officials want to see more evidence of inflation data to ensure it returns to its 2% target before starting to cut the interest rates. That being said, the high-for-longer US rate narrative might lift the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. 

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept borrowing costs at record highs at its March meeting, but policymakers indicated they were discussing a first rate cut. The ECB policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos said on Sunday that the central bank left borrowing costs at a record high this month but said it had made good progress in bringing down inflation and has started a preliminary discussion about monetary easing. He added that the central bank could start cutting interest rates in June after a decrease in Eurozone inflation. 

The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Trade Balance are due on Monday. On Tuesday, the ZEW Survey from Germany and the Eurozone will be released. The attention will shift to the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair