USD/JPY has moved back to within touching distance of the highs from the last couple of years at just below the 152.00 level. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Renewed Yen weakness is drawing more concern from Japanese policymakers

Japanese officials find themselves under pressure to support the Yen again after market participants scaled Fed rate cut expectations at the start of this year in response to stronger US inflation data. Last week’s reassurance from the Fed that they still plan to deliver three rate cuts this year has not been sufficient on its own to prevent the US Dollar from strengthening further last week.

However, we do expect verbal intervention from Japanese officials to help dampen further upside for USD/JPY in the near term. Japan’s top currency official Masato Kanda warned that ‘the current weakening of the yen is not in line with fundamentals and is clearly driven by speculation. We will take appropriate action against excessive fluctuations, without ruling out any options’. He also added that ‘we are always prepared’ when asked about the prospect of direct intervention. He noted that the ‘large fluctuation of 4% in just two weeks in USD/JPY’ does not reflect fundamentals that he finds ‘unusual’.