- Digging deeper into Mexico’s Business Confidence data, confidence in the current economic outlook decreased from 53.7 to 53.1. In regard to expectations for the future, the sub-component cooled from 56.2 to 56.1.
- Mexico´s economic outlook remains solid as manufacturing activity expands, though at a slower pace than in January. That, coupled with strong business optimism, could underpin the Mexican currency, which is at risk of depreciating if Banxico continues to lower rates, diminishing the interest rate differential with the US.
- Last week, Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja remained dovish despite acknowledging that the battle against inflation hasn’t been won. She added, “When macroeconomic conditions and the inflationary outlook allow us to make additional adjustments to the reference rate to the one we already have, I consider that they would be gradual.”
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) summary report showed that vacancies had changed a little in February. Figures came at 8.756 million, exceeding the previous month's downward revised numbers of 8.748 million and estimates of 8.75 million.
- The US Census Bureau revealed that Factory Orders for February rose by 1.4% after a -3.4% showing in January, exceeding estimates of 1%.
- Tuesday’s data, along with manufacturing activity expanding in March, portrays a strong economic outlook for the US economy. Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pivoted last December, data suggests that it’s too early to begin easing policy.
- Regarding future interest rate expectations of the Fed, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests that traders see a 58% chance of the US central bank cutting borrowing costs.
- Chair Powell said at San Francisco Fed: “The fact that the US economy is growing at such a solid pace, the fact that the labor market is still very, very strong, gives us the chance to just be a little more confident about inflation coming down before we take the important step of cutting rates.”
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