| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL LIMIT |
| Entry Point | 0.9107 |
| Take Profit | 0.8997 |
| Stop Loss | 0.9142 |
| Key Levels | 0.8878, 0.8997, 0.9107, 0.9230 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.9145 |
| Take Profit | 0.9230 |
| Stop Loss | 0.9103 |
| Key Levels | 0.8878, 0.8997, 0.9107, 0.9230 |
Current trend
The USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.9092, approaching the resistance level of 0.9107 amid the strengthening of the American dollar.
The positive dynamics of the US currency are developing under the influence of macroeconomic statistics. The February volume of industrial orders increased by 1.4% MoM, better than the forecast of 1.1%, although the previous value was corrected from –3.6% to –3.8%. Sustained upward dynamics in the sector may contribute to a further increase in gross domestic product (GDP) and a slowdown in inflation. Meanwhile, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a multidimensional indicator of core inflation trends fell from 3.0% to 2.9%.
Swiss data could not support the franc. The February retail sales amounted to –0.1% MoM, better than the forecast of –0.3% and –0.2% YoY, worse than expected at 0.4% and the previous value of 0.3%. However, procure.ch manufacturing PMI, which records the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector and is one of the important indicators characterizing the degree of confidence of large businesses in the economic development of the country, increased from 44.0 points to 45.2 points.
The long-term trend is upward: today, the price is approaching the November high of 0.9107, and after the breakout, the October high of 0.9230 may be reached. In case of a decline to the support level of 0.8997, long positions with the target at 0.9107 are relevant. The RSI indicator (21) entered the overbought zone, reflecting the likelihood of a correction.
The medium-term trend is upward: last week, the quotes broke through zone 3 (0.9002–0.8979) and headed towards zone 4 (0.9249–0.9224). In the event of a correction to the key support area of 0.8855–0.8832, long positions with the first target at the current week’s high of 0.9092 are relevant.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.9107, 0.9230.
Support levels: 0.8997, 0.8878.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from 0.9107, with the target at 0.8997 and stop loss 0.9142. Implementation time: 9–12 days.
Long positions may be opened above 0.9142, with the target at 0.9230 and stop loss 0.9103.
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