The ADP survey on job creation will be out on Wednesday and is expected to report the private sector added 148K new positions in March. If the headline reading widely surpasses the estimate, it could be understood as a stubbornly strong labor market. Combined with higher wages, the news will likely boost demand for the USD. The opposite scenario, weak job creation alongside easing wages, should push the Greenback into negative ground amid a better sentiment.
From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The Dollar Index (DXY) flirts with 105.00 ahead of the announcement, after hitting 105.10 on Tuesday, a fresh 2024 high. The bullish momentum, however, is missing in the daily chart, despite the overall picture favors an upward continuation. The DXY develops above its moving averages, although the 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) lack directional strength. Only the 20 SMA seems to be giving signs of life, grinding marginally higher and poised to cross above the 100 SMA. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain within positive levels, although without clear directional strength.”
Bednarik adds: “Beyond the 105.20 region, the DXY has little to deal with until 105.50. A daily close above the latter should confirm the bullish case and pave the way for a test of the 106.00-106.10 price zone. On the other hand, immediate support is located at 104.70, followed by 104.25
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