Daily digest market movers: Here come the layoffs

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  • A substantial move on the charts in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY on Wednesday, pointing to a possible intervention again from either the Bank of Japan (BoJ) or the Ministry of Finance, though no official confirmations were issued. 
  • Kickoff this Thursday at 11:30 GMT with the April Challenger Job Cuts report. the previous number was at 90,309.
  • At 12:30 GMT, the bigger part of the data for Thursday is to be released:
    • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected to head to 212,000 from 207,000.
    • Continuing Claims were at 1.781 million last week, with no forecast available.
    • The US Goods and Trade balance from March is to be released:
    • The Goods Trade Balance deficit was previously at $91.8 billion.
    • Goods and Services Trade Balance expected to head from a deficit of $68.9 billion to a deficit of $69.1 billion. 
    • Nonfarm Productivity growth for the first quarter of 2024 should slow down from 3.2% to 0.8%.
    • Unit Labor Costs are expected to accelerate substantially, from 0.4% to 3.2%.
  • Near 14:00 GMT, the monthly factory orders for March are expected to increase by 1.6%, higher than the 1.4% advance seen a month earlier.
  • Equities trade mixed on Thursday morning, with European equities mildly in the red while US Futures are mildly in the green. 
  • The CME Fedwatch Tool suggests a 91.1% probability that June will still see no change to the Federal Reserve's fed fund rate. Odds of a rate cut in July are also out of the cards, while for September the tool shows a 56% chance that rates will be lower than current levels.
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.61% and keeps lingering around this level.


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