- Banxico unanimously decided to keep rates at 11.00% due to recent data signaling that inflation is accelerating.
- The central bank revised its estimates that inflation would converge toward its 3% goal until the last quarter of 2025, later than March’s estimates for Q2 2025. Core inflation is projected to hit 3% in Q2 2025.
- April's data show that Mexico’s headline inflation is reaccelerating. However, core prices are falling.
- The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index retreated in May from 77.2 in April to 67.4, missing analysts’ estimates of 76. According to Joanne Hsu, Director of the UoM Survey, the 10-point decline “is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about six months.”
- Inflation expectations for one year rose from 3.2% to 3.5% in May. For a 10-year period, they increased to 3.1%, a tenth up from 3.0%.
- US labor market continues to cool. April’s Nonfarm Payrolls and the release of the latest unemployment claims data can put pressure on Fed officials, who acknowledged that risks to achieving its dual mandate on employment and inflation “moved toward better balance over the past year.”
- Data from the futures market show odds for a quarter-percentage-point Fed rate cut in September at 74% versus 85% ahead of the UoM Consumer Sentiment report.
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