Current trend

After the correction to the support level of 0.6070, the NZD/USD pair grows despite negative macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand.

In June, the consumer confidence index from the Australian and New Zealand banking group ANZ Group amounted to 83.0 points, below the forecast of 84.2 points and the previous value of 84.9 points, and the business confidence indicator was 6.1 points compared to expectations of 10.2 points and 11.2 points previously. In May, the volume of exports added 7.16B New Zealand dollars, and imports – 6.95B New Zealand dollars, which could not provide significant support to the national currency since investors focus on monetary factors.

Meanwhile, the American dollar is weakening after the publication of statistics on the housing market. The May building permits fell by 2.8% and new home sales by 11.3%, although analysts expected growth of 2.9%. On Thursday, investors will pay attention to the May pending home sales, which may increase by 2.5% after a decrease of 7.7% last month. Initial jobless claims for the week of June 21, according to preliminary estimates, will be adjusted from 238.0K to 236.0K, and continuing claims for the week of June 14 from 1.828M to 1.82M. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT 2), the personal consumption expenditures price index is due. It is a key indicator of inflation for the US Fed. The core indicator may decrease from 2.8% to 2.6%, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut during the regulator’s September meeting. The official forecasts suggest an adjustment of the indicator from 5.5% to 5.1% by the end of the year.

The long-term trend remains upward. The price tested the support level of 0.6070 and returned to growth. After consolidating above 0.6100, it may reach 0.6205 and then 0.6262 and 0.6350. After a breakdown of the support level of 0.6070, a decline to the support area of ​​0.5992–0.5981 is likely. The RSI (21) indicator is in a neutral position, which allows us to consider both purchases and sales of the asset.

The medium-term trend is upward. However, within the downward correction, the quotes reached the key trend support area of ​​0.6082–0.6068. If a buy pattern is formed, long positions, with the target at the June high of ​​0.6220 are relevant, after which growth to zone 3 (0.6286–0.6272) is expected. After a breakdown of the key support area of ​​0.6082–0.6068, the medium-term trend will reverse downwards, and short positions, with the target in zone 2 (0.5942–0.5928), will become relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.6205, 0.6262, 0.6350.

Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6070, 0.5990.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 0.6100, with the target at 0.6205 and stop loss 0.6070. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.6065, with the target at 0.5990 and stop loss 0.6095.