- EUR/USD continues to face selling pressure near the round-level resistance of 1.0700. The Euro’s near-term outlook is uncertain ahead of the Eurozone’s election outcome and growing speculation that the ECB will deliver back-to-back rate cuts.
- Investors remain cautious over the outcome of the French election amid speculation that the new government would make significant fiscal policy shifts, which would widen the financial crisis. The uncertainty over the French elections was triggered after French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election after his party suffered defeat in preliminary results from Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN).
- On the monetary policy front, ECB policymakers refrained from committing to any pre-defined interest rate path after the central bank commenced the rate-cutting cycle in its policy meeting in early June amid concerns over wage inflation. However, higher interest rates weigh heavily on overall demand, which impacts activities in manufacturing as well as the service sector.
- Going forward, preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for June will be under the spotlight next week, as it will provide major cues about the interest rate outlook. Currently, investors expect that the ECB will deliver one more rate cut this year.
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