Daily digest market movers: Aussie looks weak ahead of Inflation and Retail Sales data

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  • The risk-off sentiment continues to dominate with Australia's economic climate being influenced by concerns over Chinese economic stress.
  • This week, investors will be eyeing Australian June Q2 CPI data, due to be released on Wednesday.
  • For Q2, the headline CPI is expected to match Q1's rise of 1.0% QoQ and accelerate to 3.8% YoY from 3.6% in Q1. Meanwhile, the June headline CPI is anticipated to fall to 3.8% YoY.
  • With the inflation rate still above the 2-3% target range, the RBA is unlikely to rush toward a policy change. The swaps market predicts stability for the rest of the year with the first significant 25 bps cut expected next summer.
  • Tuesday will also see Q2's Retail sales data release. Retail Sales volume is expected to show a less severe decline of 0.2% QoQ in Q2, compared to 0.4% in Q1

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