- In the absence of key fundamental releases on Monday, market concerns of an escalation in the Middle East are likely to weigh risk appetite and provide support for the US Dollar due to its safe-haven status.
- On Tuesday, the US Conference Board’s Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show a moderate decline to 99.5 from 100.4 in the previous month.
- US JOLTS Job Openings are seen to have eased to 8.03 million in June from 8.14 million in May.
- Future markets are pricing only a 4.1% chance of an interest rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday, with a 25 bps rate cut fully priced for September, according to the CME Group Fed Watch Tool.
- Data seen last week showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices Index remained sticky in June, yet with the core PCE index at 2.6% year-over-year, which kept hopes of a September rate cut alive.
- Earlier in the week, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surprised with a 2.8% yearly growth in the second quarter, from 1.4% in the first, but still far from the growth levels seen in the second half of 2023.
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