Market picture

Cryptocurrencies continued to sag, failing to support gains in the stock market, returning the crypto market cap to $2.30trn levels seen a week ago. The market formed another lower local peak, a sequence that has been in place since March. A move towards the lower end of the sloping range suggests the potential for another 20% decline. This is a pessimistic, non-mainstream scenario given Bitcoin's historically strong performance in these months post-halving and the good risk appetite in stocks and commodities.

Bitcoin was down to $63.7K on Thursday morning, once again near the 50-day moving average, which remains a tactical support line. If the decline develops, dynamics around the $63K and $61K levels, near where the 50 and 200-day moving averages are, will be important. A failure of this support will open the way to $55K, which is quite frightening.