United States of America

USD is strengthening against JPY and EUR but has ambiguous dynamics against GBP.

Today, weekly data on the labor market, as well as July statistics on retail sales were published. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 227.0 thousand, which was lower than both the forecast of 236.0 thousand and the previous figure of 234.0 thousand, while the total number of citizens receiving assistance from the state decreased from 1.871 million to 1.864 million instead of the expected growth to 1.880 million. The volume of retail sales in July grew by 1.0%, which was significantly higher than the preliminary estimates of 0.4%. These statistics confirmed the stability of the labor market and domestic demand, which reduces the risks of a recession and pushes the dollar to growth. Also worth noting are the comments of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) President Raphael Bostic, who said in an interview with the Financial Times that he was ready to consider starting to cut interest rates in September and added that the regulator should not be late in starting to ease monetary policy.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against JPY but weakening against USD and GBP.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the euro's movement is driven by external factors. It is worth noting the statements of German officials from the Ministry of Trade, who warned of a likely decline in its volumes in the coming months. The document says that the latest data on the export of goods and services is again disappointing, and business indicators abroad are also largely subdued. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck additionally stated that the weakness of the indicators turned out to be more persistent than initially expected: they are under serious pressure due to problems in China, which is Germany's leading trading partner. Habeck named the lack of investment in infrastructure and the untimely response to the shortage of skilled workers as other important problems.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against JPY and EUR but has ambiguous dynamics against USD.

Investors are focused on the publication of preliminary data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter: QoQ, the economy slowed growth from 0.7% to 0.6%, and YoY, it increased by 0.9% after growing by 0.3% in the first quarter. Thus, the indicator demonstrated a recovery from the shallow recession of last year. Also published today are data on industrial production for June, which turned out to be mixed: MoM, the indicator increased by 0.8% instead of the expected growth of 0.1%, and YoY, it decreased by 1.4% with preliminary estimates of ˗2.1%.

Japan

JPY is weakening against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and USD.

Preliminary data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter were published today, which turned out to be positive: QoQ, the indicator increased by 0.8% instead of the expected 0.6%, and YoY – by 3.1% instead of 2.1%. Consumer spending in the second quarter grew by 1.0%, also exceeding experts' expectations of 0.5%. These statistics increase the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. Earlier, officials had already predicted that a sustainable economic recovery would help inflation reach the target of 2.0%, which would justify further increases in interest rates.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, JPY, and USD.

Investors are focused on the publication of July data on the labor market, which turned out to be ambiguous: the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% with an unchanged forecast, but total employment increased by 58.2 thousand instead of the expected 20.2 thousand, and full employment – by 60.5 thousand. The share of the economically active population also grew from 66.9% to 67.1%. These data reduce the likelihood of the first interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year, confirming the opinion of some experts that officials will ease monetary policy no earlier than the spring of 2025.

Oil

Oil prices are growing moderately today amid the publication of strong data on retail sales, which reduce the risks of a recession in the American economy and a decrease in global demand for energy. However, the growth of quotes is somewhat restrained by insufficiently positive Chinese statistics and the growth of oil product inventories in the USA.

The volume of industrial production in China in July increased by 5.1% but was below both the preliminary estimates of 5.2% and the June figure of 5.3%. The report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) published yesterday recorded an increase in commercial oil inventories by 1.357 million barrels instead of the expected decrease of 1.900 million barrels, while gasoline inventories declined by 2.894 million barrels, and distillate inventories – by 1.673 million barrels.