- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued on Friday its weekly holding of speculative and non-speculative positions in currency futures markets. The report revealed that hedge funds are net long JPY for the first time since 2021.
- This week kicks off with comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who delivers welcoming remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance in Washington, D.C at 13:15 GMT.
- The US Treasury is allocating a short-term 3-month and 6-month bill at 15:30 GMT.
- Asian equity markets are mixed, with Chinese indices up nearly 1%, while Japanese equities are sliding over 1% lower. European equities are also looking for direction while US futures are trading flat.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 72% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September against a 28% chance for a 50 bps cut. Another 25 bps cut (if September is a 25 bps cut) is expected in November by 53.7%, while there is a 39.2% chance that rates will be 75 bps below the current levels and a 7.1% probability of rates being 100 basis points lower.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 3.87% and is looking for direction after last week’s dip.
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