| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 72.50 |
| Take Profit | 67.70 |
| Stop Loss | 75.00 |
| Key Levels | 67.70, 72.50, 74.20, 80.10 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 74.20 |
| Take Profit | 80.10 |
| Stop Loss | 71.00 |
| Key Levels | 67.70, 72.50, 74.20, 80.10 |
Current trend
The oil market is still unstable, and Brent Crude Oil quotes fell to the low of November 2023 at 73.30.
One of the key factors putting pressure on the asset remains concerns about lower demand from the leading consumer, China. The July new export orders for oil fell for the first time in the last eight months. The country is looking for suppliers willing to provide oil at a lower price to increase the margin for oil refineries. One of the new destinations is Iran. Its imports reached a record high of 1.75M barrels per day in August, almost twice as much as in July, compared to the previous peak in October of 1.66M barrels per day. The Iranian Light brand is sold at a discount to the asset price on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) of 6.0 dollars, lower than the Russian Urals.
This week, the publication of inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) will be postponed by one day and may reflect a decrease of 1.200M barrels and continue the decrease from the current –0.846M barrels, respectively.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving in a corrective trend, forming a wide downward channel of 84.00–72.50.
Technical indicators are holding a sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and MACD is forming corrective bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 74.20, 80.10.
Support levels: 72.50, 67.70.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 72.50, with the target at 67.70. Stop loss — 75.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Long positions may be opened after the price grows and consolidates above 74.20 again, with the target at 80.10. Stop loss — 71.00.
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