- Market optimism is driving the US Dollar higher ahead of the weekend.
- The market is expecting robust growth in Q3, with the New York Fed's Nowcast model tracking Q3 growth at 2.6% SAAR and Q4 growth at 2.2% SAAR.
- Fed is likely pleased that the market is helping to keep financial conditions loose, which should help the economy avoid a hard landing.
- Despite the Fed's efforts to push back against market easing expectations, they have intensified.
- After initially lowering its expectations following the decision, the market is now factoring in an additional 75 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year.
- Even more unexpected is that the market anticipates close to 250 basis points of further cuts over the next year, which would bring the fed funds rate significantly below the neutral level.
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