| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.3430 |
| Take Profit | 1.3285 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3500 |
| Key Levels | 1.3285, 1.3430, 1.3525, 1.3645 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.3525 |
| Take Profit | 1.3645 |
| Stop Loss | 1.3470 |
| Key Levels | 1.3285, 1.3430, 1.3525, 1.3645 |
Current trend
The USD/CAD pair is correcting at 1.3487: the Canadian dollar remains under pressure from poor macroeconomic data.
Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), investors will pay attention to the gross domestic product (GDP), assuming it will remain zero MoM. Earlier, Statistics Canada reported a decrease in job vacancies by 22.4K or 4.1% to 526.9K in July, the third month of decline. Compared to the peak of July 2022, the figure has almost halved, by 47.5%. However, the August average weekly wages increased from 0.4% to 1.0% to 1.268K Canadian dollars.
The American currency strengthened to 100.50 in USDX against macroeconomic statistics. The Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) grew from 1.6% to 3.0% earlier, despite the deflator reduction from 3.0% to 2.5%, meeting the forecasts. Initial jobless claims have been decreasing for the second week, having adjusted from 222.0K to 218.0K, so average claims for the past four weeks have changed from 228.25K to 224.75K.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is held below the support line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.4000–1.3730.
Technical indicators are strengthening the sell signal: the EMA oscillation range on the Alligator indicator is expanding, and the fast EMAs are moving away from each other. The AO histogram forms new bars below the transition level, moving away from it.
Resistance levels: 1.3525, 1.3645.
Support levels: 1.3430, 1.3285.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 1.3430, with the target at 1.3285. Stop loss is 1.3500. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Long positions may be opened after the price grows and consolidates above 1.3525, with the target at 1.3645. Stop loss is 1.3470.
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