MACRO   ECONOMIC CALENDAR   July 13 – 17, 2026  ·  GMT+8

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 13 – 17 July 2026

Followme News Desk  |  July 13, 2026  |  All times GMT+8

Key Events This Week

🕐 All times shown are GMT+8

Macro Analysis

🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Bundle (MoM, Core MoM, YoY)

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is the headline heavyweight of the week. Headline CPI MoM is forecast to cool slightly to -0.1% down from 0.5% prior. However, Core CPI MoM (excluding volatile food and energy) is expected to tick up slightly to 0.3% from 0.2% prior, against a previous yearly backdrop of 4.2%. If core inflation continues to prove sticky or heats up further, it will strengthen the "higher-for-longer" narrative, giving the USD a major boost. Conversely, a sweeping miss across these figures would validate near-term rate-cut expectations and trigger a sharp pullback in the Dollar.

🇨🇳 China GDP (YoY) (Q2)

China's Q2 year-over-year GDP prints on Wednesday morning against a previous benchmark of 5.0%. As a core indicator of economic health for the world’s second-largest economy, this data point will heavily dictate global risk appetite. A strong print will uplift commodity markets and risk-correlated currencies, while a notable miss could trigger defensive positioning, driving safe-haven flows back into the USD.

🇺🇸 U.S. PPI (MoM)

June's Producer Price Index (MoM) arrives with a forecast of 0.0%, marking a steep projected drop from the previous month's hot 1.1% print. Landing a day after the CPI report, the PPI offers wholesale inflation context that feeds directly into the Fed's favored PCE deflator calculation. Any surprise upside here would signal that pipeline price pressures remain stubborn, keeping pressure on the Fed to hold off on immediate policy easing.

🇨🇦 Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, matching its previous setting. Because a hold is widely anticipated, market reaction will focus squarely on the policy statement and monetary policy report. Any signals pointing toward a more dovish pivot in future quarters could weaken the CAD, whereas a cautious, inflation-wary stance will provide the Loonie with support.

🇬🇧 UK GDP (MoM)

The UK's monthly economic growth gauge for May is projected to expand by 0.1%, recovering from the -0.1% contraction seen previously. A return to expansion territory would provide the British Pound with a modest lift and validate a more measured approach to policy adjustments from the Bank of England. An unexpected negative reading, however, would rekindle local growth anxieties.

🇺🇸 U.S. Retail & Core Retail Sales

Rounding out Thursday's high-velocity cluster are manufacturing and employment indicators. The Philly Fed Index is projected to improve to 12.1 from 10.3 prior, indicating resilient factory activity. Concurrently, Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to come in flat at 215K. Stable claims coupled with a robust manufacturing print would showcase structural economic resilience, making it easier for the Fed to prolong restrictive rates.

🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index & Initial Jobless Claims

Rounding out Thursday's high-velocity cluster are manufacturing and employment indicators. The Philly Fed Index is projected to improve to 12.1 from 10.3 prior, indicating resilient factory activity. Concurrently, Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to come in flat at 215K. Stable claims coupled with a robust manufacturing print would showcase structural economic resilience, making it easier for the Fed to prolong restrictive rates.

🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI (YoY)

The week concludes with the Eurozone’s June inflation reading, projected to hold steady at 2.8% year-over-year. If verified, this flat reading confirms that regional price pressures are stabilizing rather than plummeting, which reduces the immediate urgency for aggressive, consecutive rate cuts from the ECB and should help keep the EUR supported against its major peers heading into the weekend close.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders

🟩 Bullish USD Scenario — Stronger Dollar Case

Core CPI Beats Forecast: A reading above 0.3% MoM signals stubborn underlying inflation, driving bond yields and the USD higher.

Retail Sales Outperform: A headline beat above 0.3% and core retail sales remaining positive would prove the U.S. consumer remains highly resilient.

Philly Fed Index Surges: A print well above 12.1 highlights industrial strength, reinforcing a strong domestic economic backdrop.

Initial Jobless Claims Fall: A drop below the 215K forecast points to a tight labor market, removing any urgency for a Fed cut.

China GDP Underperforms: A weak print below previous levels dampens global risk appetite, forcing safe-haven flows into the greenback.

🌡 Wild Cards — High Whipsaw Risk

CPI vs Core CPI Divergence: If headline CPI drops sharply due to energy but Core CPI prints hot, the market will experience highly choppy, multi-directional swings.

Retail Demand vs Manufacturing Divergence: Weak retail spending landing alongside a booming Philly Fed index could pull the Dollar in opposite directions over economic growth vs inflation worries.

BoC Policy Guidance Shift: An unexpectedly aggressive or soft stance from the Bank of Canada could trigger swift, volatile cross-market ripples across commodity pairs.

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario — Weaker Dollar Case

CPI Prints Cooler Across the Board: Headline dipping further into negative territory and Core missing the 0.3% mark would actively pull forward Fed easing expectations.

Core Retail Sales Contract Heavily: A deeper drop below the expected -0.1% indicates a fast-fading consumer engine, weighing heavily on USD.

Initial Jobless Claims Spike: A significant rise above 215K signals cracks formatting in the employment sector.

Eurozone CPI Surprises to the Upside: A print above 2.8% would compress ECB rate-cut expectations, lifting EUR/USD significantly.

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