MACRO   ECONOMIC CALENDAR   July 27 – 31, 2026  ·  GMT+8

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 27 – 31 July 2026

Followme News Desk  |  July 27, 2026  |  All times GMT+8

This week's economic calendar is heavily focused on U.S. Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, the Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference, German GDP (QoQ) Q2, the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, German CPI (MoM), U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM and YoY), U.S. GDP (QoQ) Q2, Initial Jobless Claims, China Manufacturing PMI, the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, EU CPI (YoY) and U.S. Chicago PMI. Monday and Tuesday are warmups, Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence set the mood without doing much to move markets on their own. Thursday is where the week actually happens, with the Fed decision, FOMC press conference, German GDP, the BoE decision, German CPI, Core PCE, GDP and Jobless Claims all landing on the same calendar day.

Friday keeps going with the BoJ decision, EU CPI and Chicago PMI. The Fed press conference at 2:30 Thursday morning is the single event that matters most, not because the rate is moving, but because whatever Powell says will still be shaping how traders position when Core PCE and GDP drop eighteen hours later.

Key Events This Week

🕐 All times shown are GMT+8

Date	Time	CCY	Event	Forecast	Previous
27/7	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)	-5.00%	8.50%
28/7	22:00	🇺🇸 USD	CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)	94.4	90.6
30/7	02:00	🇺🇸 USD	⭐ Fed Interest Rate Decision	3.75%	3.75%
	02:30	🇺🇸 USD	⭐ FOMC Press Conference	—	—
	14:00	🇩🇪 DEM	German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)	0.30%	0.20%
	19:00	🇬🇧 GBP	BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jul)	3.75%	3.75%
	20:00	🇩🇪 DEM	German CPI (MoM) (Jul)	-0.30%	-0.20%
	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)	0.30%	0.30%
	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun)	3.40%	3.30%
	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)	1.60%	0.50%
	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	Initial Jobless Claims	216K	216K
31/7	09:30	🇨🇳 CNY	Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	50.1	50
	11:00	🇯🇵 JPY	⭐ BoJ Interest Rate Decision	1.00%	0.75%
	17:00	🇪🇺 EUR	CPI (YoY) (Jul)	2.80%	3.20%
	21:45	🇺🇸 USD	Chicago PMI (Jul)	55.7	62.7

Macro Analysis

🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders for June are forecast at -5.00%, a dramatic reversal from the 8.50% reading prior. That's a wide swing, and durable goods data is notoriously volatile month to month, but a drop of this magnitude is harder to dismiss as noise. If the number lands anywhere close to -5.00%, it would signal that business investment pulled back sharply after last month's strong showing, which could set a cautious tone for the Dollar heading into a much busier mid-week. A smaller decline than forecast, or an outright positive surprise, would ease those concerns and suggest last month's strength wasn't entirely a one-off.

🇺🇸 U.S. CB Consumer Confidence

CB Consumer Confidence for July is forecast at 94.4, up from 90.6 prior, a meaningful improvement in sentiment. If confirmed, it would suggest that households are feeling more confident about the outlook heading into the second half of the year, which tends to translate into stronger spending intentions. That's quietly USD-positive and helps set a constructive tone before the heavier events later in the week. A mistake that keeps confidence closer to or below 90 would raise questions about whether the recent softness in consumer data is feeding through sentiment more broadly.

🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference

This is the centrepiece of the week. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.75%, unchanged from the previous decision. The rate itself won't move markets, what will is the FOMC Press Conference at 2:30, where Powell's every word will be parsed for clues about how the committee is thinking about the path ahead. Any language that sounds more open to cuts than the market currently expects would weaken USD fast. A firm, data-dependent tone that pushes back on near-term easing would give the Dollar more room to hold its ground. With Core PCE and GDP also landing in the same session later in the day, Thursday's Fed window is the most consequential cluster of the week by some distance.

🇩🇪 German GDP (QoQ) Q2

German GDP for Q2 is forecast at 0.30% on a quarterly basis, up from 0.20% prior, a modest improvement but an improvement nonetheless. A reading that confirms Germany is holding its recovery trajectory would be modestly EUR-positive, reducing some of the growth anxiety that has weighed on the single currency in recent quarters. A miss, or a return to negative territory, would revive concerns about the Eurozone's largest economy struggling to find momentum and put pressure on EUR heading into Friday's CPI data.

🇬🇧 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

The BoE is expected to hold at 3.75%, unchanged from the prior meeting. Coming the day after last week's UK CPI beat, the tone of this decision will matter more than the rate itself. If the BoE sounds cautious about cutting and flags persistent inflation concerns, GBP could hold its gains from earlier in the week. A more dovish-leaning statement, particularly if any members voted for a cut, would put Sterling under pressure and could produce a sharp reversal in GBP/USD if USD is also finding support from the Fed press conference earlier in the day.

🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM)

German CPI for July is forecast at -0.30%, slipping further from the -0.20% reading prior. Two consecutive months of negative monthly prints from the Eurozone's largest economy is a meaningful signal that domestic price pressures are fading faster than the ECB may have anticipated. A reading at or below -0.30% would accelerate ECB easing expectations and weigh on EUR, particularly if German GDP earlier in the day was also disappointed. A smaller decline than forecast, or a flat reading, would give EUR some breathing room and reduce the urgency around further ECB action.

🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index

Core PCE (MoM) for June is forecast at 0.30%, unchanged from prior, while Core PCE (YoY) is forecast at 3.40%, ticking up from 3.30%. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and it lands in the same session as the GDP print and Jobless Claims, making Thursday's 20:30 window genuinely explosive for USD. A hotter-than-expected PCE, even by a tenth, would validate the Fed's caution and push rate cut expectations further out. A softer reading, particularly if the annual rate fails to accelerate, would reignite the dovish narrative and put immediate pressure on the Dollar just hours after the Fed press conference earlier in the morning.

🇺🇸 U.S. GDP (QoQ) Q2

GDP is forecast at 1.60%, a notable step up from the 0.50% reading in Q1. If confirmed, it would show that U.S. Economic activity reaccelerated meaningfully through the second quarter, a finding that cuts both ways for rate expectations. Strong growth alongside sticky inflation makes the Fed's job harder, which tends to support USD by keeping the higher-for-longer narrative intact. A disappointment below 1.60%, especially if paired with soft PCE data, would shift the conversation toward an economy that's slowing faster than expected and increase pressure on the Fed to consider easing sooner.

🇺🇸 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Claims are forecast at 216K, flat with the prior reading effectively no change. In a session already carrying the Fed press conference, German CPI, Core PCE and GDP, claims won't be the story on Thursday. But a meaningful jump above consensus on the same day as soft growth and inflation data would deepen any bearish USD reaction. A reading at or below 216K keeps the labour market picture clean and removes one reason for the Fed to shift its tone.

🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI

China's Manufacturing PMI for July is forecast at 50.1, barely above the 50 prior holding at the expansion threshold but not building any real momentum. A reading that stays at or above 50 keeps the global manufacturing recovery narrative mildly intact and supports risk-correlated currencies. A slip below 50 would signal contraction in Chinese factory activity and could weigh on commodity currencies and broader risk appetite, creating an indirect tailwind for USD as safe-haven demand picks up heading into a session that already has the BoJ decision and Eurozone CPI.

🇯🇵 Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

The BoJ is expected to hike to 1.00% from 0.75% prior, a significant move that would mark another step in Japan's gradual exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy stance. If confirmed, it would likely push JPY stronger across the board, putting meaningful pressure on USD/JPY. The key question is whether the BoJ signals further hikes ahead or frames this as a measured, cautious step. A hawkish hike with firm forward guidance could trigger sharp JPY strength. A hike with a dovish or non-committal statement would limit the JPY rally and potentially allow USD/JPY to recover some ground quickly.

🇪🇺 EU CPI (YoY)

Eurozone CPI for July is forecast at 2.80%, easing from 3.20% prior a significant deceleration on the annual rate. If confirmed, it would provide the ECB with meaningful cover to consider further easing, which is typically EUR-negative. A reading that falls in line with or below 2.80% would accelerate ECB cut expectations and weigh on EUR heading into the weekend. A surprise hold at or near 3.20% would flip the narrative, suggesting inflation is proving stickier than expected and reducing the pressure on the ECB to act quickly.

🇺🇸 U.S. Chicago PMI

Chicago PMI for July is forecast at 55.7, a notable pullback from 62.7 prior. Even with the deceleration, a reading above 55 still signals solid expansion, but the scale of the decline is worth watching. Markets may interpret a drop of this size as a sign that the strong momentum seen last month isn't sustainable, even if the absolute level remains healthy. A reading that holds closer to 55 or above would calm those concerns. A sharper-than-expected drop toward 50 would add to any end-of-week USD pressure if the broader data picture had already disappointed across Thursday's heavy session.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders

Thursday is the kind of session that doesn't come around often. The Fed decision lands at 2:00 in the morning, Powell speaks at 2:30, and then markets have to sit with whatever he said for the rest of the day before Core PCE, GDP and Claims all hit at 20:30. That's a long time for positioning to build or unravel, depending on the tone. If Powell sounds firm, traders will be leaning for a long USD when the data drops. If he sounds cautious, they'll be leaning the other way, and a PCE or GDP miss would accelerate that fast.

Friday is the day USD gets tested from the outside. The BoJ hiking to 1.00% would narrow the rate gap with the U.S. in a way that markets will price immediately. JPY could strengthen sharply, and USD/JPY is the pair to watch. Throw in EU CPI coming in softer than expected and China's PMI barely keep its head above 50, and Friday has the ingredients for a messy close regardless of how Thursday went. The week starts quietly on Monday and Tuesday, but don't let that fool you by Thursday morning. It becomes one of the busiest 48-hour windows of the year.

🟩 Bullish USD Scenario — Stronger Dollar Case

• Powell Sounds Like He's Not Going Anywhere — No hints at cuts, no softening of language. The committee needs more data and they're comfortable waiting. USD gets a clean bid at 2:30 and holds it.
• Core PCE Confirms Inflation Isn't Done — A YoY print above 3.40% right after a hawkish Fed press conference is about as good a one-two as USD bulls could ask for on a Thursday.
• GDP Q2 comes in above 1.60% — The economy grew faster than expected in Q2 while the Fed is still holding. That's a hard combination of rate cut advocates to argue against, and USD reflects it.
• Consumer Confidence Beats on Tuesday — Sentiment improving toward 94.4 or above tells you the consumer isn't spooked yet, which matters a lot more heading into a week like this one.
• Durable Goods Holds Above -5.00% — If the drop isn't as bad as feared on Monday, the week opens with one less concern and USD starts Thursday with cleaner positioning.
• Chicago PMI Stays Firm on Friday — A reading that doesn't follow through on the drop from 62.7 to 55.7 would show Midwest manufacturing is more resilient than the forecast implied, a decent note to close the week on.

🌡 Wild Cards — High Whipsaw Risk

• Powell Opens a Door, Then Data Closes It — If the press conference sounds slightly dovish but PCE comes in hot a few hours later, USD could reverse direction twice in the same session. That kind of whipsaw is brutal for anyone who committed it too early.
• BoJ Goes Hawkish on Top of a Soft U.S. Thursday — A firm BoJ statement at 11:00 Friday morning, coming after a day where the U.S. data already disappointed, would compound USD/JPY selling in a way that could run further than most expect.
• German GDP and CPI Both Miss — If Germany shows weaker growth and another negative CPI print on the same day, EUR might drop hard early in the Thursday session, creating cross-currency flows that confuse how USD pairs trade through the rest of the day.
• Durable Goods Collapses Below -5.00% — A much worse number Monday morning sets an anxious tone for the whole week and could make traders more defensive heading into the Fed, even if the data ultimately stabilises.
• EU CPI Doesn't Decelerate — A reading closer to 3.20% than 2.80% on Friday, while the BoJ is simultaneously strengthening JPY, would hit USD from two directions before Chicago PMI even prints.
• Thursday Seven-Way Pile-Up — Seven releases, one day. Even if most of them are in line, the sheer amount of information landing simultaneously often produces outsized moves that flip before the session is over.

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario — Weaker Dollar Case

• Powell Sounds Like the Next Move Is a Cut — It doesn't take much. A single phrase that implies the committee is getting closer to easing would be enough to send USD lower at 2:30, and that move tends to stick through the rest of the week.
• Core PCE Misses on the Annual Rate — If YoY comes in below 3.30% a few hours after a cautious Fed press conference, the rate cut argument goes from possible to probable very quickly and USD pays the price.
• Q2 GDP Disappoints Below 1.60% — Growth slowing in Q2 while the Fed is still at 3.75% is the kind of data that makes traders genuinely question whether rates are already too high. USD struggles to hold ground in that environment.
• BoJ Hikes and Sounds Like There's More Coming — A confident, hawkish BoJ on Friday is one of the cleaner bearish USD setups of the week. USD/JPY drops, the move is sharp, and it pulls broader Dollar indices lower with it.
• EU CPI Beats While U.S. Data Has Already Disappointed — Sticky Eurozone inflation on Friday while the U.S. is dealing with the aftermath of soft PCE and GDP would push EUR/USD higher in a move that's hard to fade into the weekend.
• Consumer Confidence Stays Below 90 on Tuesday — A miss that doesn't even reach last month's level suggests the household sector is more cautious than the numbers implied, and it sets a defensive tone before the week's main events have even started.

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